The ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from Spanish regional unemployment rates |
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| Authors: | Juan Carlos Duque Manuel Artís Raúl Ramos |
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| Institution: | (1) Regional Analysis Laboratory (REGAL), Department of Geography, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA;(2) Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional (AQR), Departament d’Econometria, Estadística i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain |
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| Abstract: | The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones. |
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| Keywords: | Ecological fallacy Time series Constrained clusters Theil index Unemployment rates |
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