Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval |
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Authors: | Federico Murrone Fabio Rossi and Pierluigi Claps |
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Institution: | (1) Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Università di Salerno, Via Ponte Don Melillo, I-84084 Fisciano, Italy;(2) Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell'/Ambiente, Universitá della Basilicata, I-85100 Potenza, Italy |
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Abstract: | A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the
hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This
latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework,
involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response
to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing
contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of
the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering
the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system
represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by
information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter
parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model
application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins. |
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Keywords: | Conceptual-stochastic models shot noise streamflow simulation time aggregation |
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