| 南宁市极端天气气候事件频率和强度变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄雪松,李艳兰,唐炳莉,丘平珠.南宁市极端天气气候事件频率和强度变化[J].气象研究与应用,2008,29(4):17-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄雪松 李艳兰 唐炳莉 丘平珠 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西区气候中心,广西,南宁530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科技攻关项目
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广西气象局重点研究项目
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| 摘 要： | 采用南宁市城区1951~2005年的月降雨量及暴雨、高温、大风、雷暴、大雾的年日数资料,统计干旱、暴雨、高温等极端天气气候事件的出现频率、强度,应用低通滤波和线性倾向估计方法,分析极端天气气候事件出现频率的演变趋势。结果显示,55年来,南宁市城区干旱频率变化率为0.0127%/10a,呈平稳变化趋势,但强度增大;暴雨日数变化率为0.276d/10a,呈增多态势,大暴雨频率为0.275%/10a,呈增大趋势;高温频率线性倾向为0.1%/10a,呈平稳趋势变化;大风、雷暴、浓雾频率的线性倾向分别为-0.5%/10a,-0.13%/10a和-0.3%/10a,均呈显著减小趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 南宁市城区 极端天气气候事件 频率 强度 趋势变化 |
Frequency and Intensity Change of Extreme Weather-Climate Events in Nanning City |
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| Huang Xue-song,Li Yan-lan,Tang Bing-li,Qiu Ping-zhu.Frequency and Intensity Change of Extreme Weather-Climate Events in Nanning City[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2008,29(4):17-19. |
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| Authors: | Huang Xue-song Li Yan-lan Tang Bing-li Qiu Ping-zhu |
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| Abstract: | With the analysis of monthly rainfall and the date data of rainstorm,high temperature,thunderstorm,gale,fog between 1951 and 2005 in Nanning city,the frequency and intensity of extreme weather-climate events such as drought,rainstorm,high temperature,etc.were educed.Though lowpass filters and linear-trend evaluation,the frequency trend of the extreme weather-climate events were analyzed.The result shows that(1) the frequency of drought is stable in 0.0127%/10a with intensity aggravating in the last 55 years.(2) the frequency of rainstorm(heavy rainstorm) is 0.276d/10a(0.275%/10a)with an ascending trend.(3) the linear frequencies of high temperature is stable in 0.1%/10a.(4) Thunderstorm(gale,fog) has a reducing trend with the linear tendency of-0.5%/10a(-0.13%/10a and-0.3%/10a). |
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| Keywords: | Nanning city zone extreme weather frequency intensity trend |
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