| 优化组合预测模型在桥梁变形预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨,勃.优化组合预测模型在桥梁变形预测中的应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2017,37(12):1234-1238. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨 勃 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高桥梁变形预测的精度，探讨不同预测模型在桥梁变形预测中的效果，结合桥梁变形监测数据及组合预测思路，构建桥梁的MC误差修正优化组合预测模型。通过实例验证得出，组合预测较单项预测具有更高的预测精度及稳定性，其中以RBF神经网络组合的预测精度最高；同时，误差优化修正模型进一步减小了预测误差，优化后预测结果的相对误差期望值为0.86%，方差值为0.097 3 mm2，准确预测了桥梁变形，验证了该思路的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 桥梁变形预测 定权组合预测模型 非定权组合预测模型 MC误差修正 精度分析 |
The Application of Optimal Combination Forecasting Model in Bridge Deformation Prediction |
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| YANG Bo.The Application of Optimal Combination Forecasting Model in Bridge Deformation Prediction[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2017,37(12):1234-1238. |
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| Authors: | YANG Bo |
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| Abstract: | This paper explores different prediction models in bridge deformation prediction and attempts to improve their accuracy. Combining bridge deformation monitoring data and the combination forecasting method, a combined forecasting model of the MC error correction and optimization of the bridge is constructed. Through examples, it is concluded that the combination prediction, as compared with single prediction, has higher predictive accuracy and stability, the highest of the RBF neural network combination.Furthermore, optimizing the error correction model further reduces the prediction error; the relative error of prediction results after optimization of the expected value is 0.86% and the variance value is 0.097 3 mm2. The accurate prediction of the deformation of the bridge verifies the effectiveness of this method. |
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| Keywords: | bridge deformation prediction fixed weight combined forecasting model non-fixed weight combined forecasting model MC error correction accuracy analysis |
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