| 基于Logistic模型的单点下沉预测应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜子龙,仪梦婷,李志远.基于Logistic模型的单点下沉预测应用研究[J].北京测绘,2021,35(1):118-121. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜子龙 仪梦婷 李志远 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590;中国海洋大学文学与新闻传播学院,山东青岛266100;山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590 |
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| 摘 要： | 岩层与地表移动具有一定的规律,由于Knothe时间函数虽然可以预计地表下沉,但在预计中有描述地表下沉速度的不足,并且其函数复杂。研究矿区单点动态下沉过程对于地表建筑物的保护具有重要意义,本文采用Logistic模型拟合下沉曲线,得到了预计方程,结果表明预计精度较高。Logistic模型参数少,函数相对简单,计算结果表明Logistic模型对矿区开采沉陷具有较好的预测精度。该模型对单点的下沉拟合程度高,在采用81期数据的预计模型中,误差平方和SSE为0.0066218,误差均方MSE为0.0000871,接近于0,表明拟合与预计精度较高,最大预计误差为0.0120673 m,对于研究矿区地表下沉规律具有重要意义,有助于了解地表单点下沉全过程,在地表活动剧烈期可对地表建筑加强支护。
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| 关 键 词： | 地表下沉 曲线拟合 逻辑(Logistic)模型 非线性回归 动态预计 |
Application Research of Single Point Subsidence Prediction Based on Logistic Model |
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| DU Zilong,YI Mengting,LI Zhiyuan.Application Research of Single Point Subsidence Prediction Based on Logistic Model[J].Beijing Surveying and Mapping,2021,35(1):118-121. |
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| Authors: | DU Zilong YI Mengting LI Zhiyuan |
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| Institution: | (College of Geomatics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao Shandong 266590,China;College of Liberal Arts,Journalism and Communication,Ocean University of China,Qingdao Shandong 266100,China) |
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| Abstract: | There is a certain rule between the strata and the surface movement.Although the knoth time function can predict the surface subsidence,it has some shortcomings in describing the surface subsidence speed,and its function is complex.It is of great significance to study the single point dynamic subsidence process for the protection of surface buildings.In this paper,the Logistic model was used to fit the subsidence curve,and the prediction equation was obtained.The results shown that the Logistic model has better prediction accuracy in mining subsidence and the model has a high degree of fitting for single point subsidence.In the prediction model with 81 period data,the sum of squared error SSE is 0.0066218,and the mean square error MSE is 0.0000871,which is close to 0,indicating that the fitting and prediction accuracy is high,and the maximum prediction error is 0.0120673 m.It is of great significance to study the features of surface subsidence in the mining area,to understand the whole process of single point subsidence,and to strengthen the support of surface buildings in the period of intense surface activity. |
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| Keywords: | surface subsidence curve fitting Logistics model nonlinear regression dynamic prediction |
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