| 藏北高寒牧区NPP的时空变化特征及2 ℃全球变暖背景下的预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗布,边多,白玛,拉巴.藏北高寒牧区NPP的时空变化特征及2 ℃全球变暖背景下的预估[J].冰川冻土,2020,42(2):653-661. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗布 边多 白玛 拉巴 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所, 四川 成都 610072;2.西藏自治区气候中心, 西藏 拉萨 85000;3.西藏自治区气象局信息网络中心, 西藏 拉萨 85000 |
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| 基金项目： | 自治区重点科技计划“藏北典型生态区生态环境遥感监测评估”(XZ201703-GA-01);中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放基金项目(LPM2014005) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用多源气象要素数据估算了1998 - 2016年的藏北高寒牧区植被净初级生产力（Net Primary Productivity， NPP）的变化特征并预估了其在2 ℃全球变暖背景下的变化趋势， 结果表明： 研究区域71.9%的NPP呈上升趋势， 仅中部部分区域有下降趋势； 平均NPP以每年0.54%速率增加， 同期气温和降水均呈增加趋势， NPP和气温在2007前后有显著增加趋势； 总体来说降水是影响NPP的最主要气候因子， 且随着纬度升高其影响越来越大， 气温对于NPP的影响从东南向西北依次递减， 在西北地区出现弱的负相关； 在2 ℃全球变暖大背景下， 分析得出IPCC“典型浓度路径”（Representative Concentration Pathways， 简称RCPs）三种温室气体排放情景下（RCP2.6、 RCP4.5、 RCP8.5）的NPP平均状态几乎没有变化， 其影响仅限于对研究区东南部的较高NPP有较小的改善作用， 其作用依次为， 表明气候变暖对研究区NPP影响有限， 预估结果对认清高原地区气候变化下NPP时空变化特征有重要意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 藏北高寒牧区 Thornthwaite Memorial模型 NPP TRMM卫星降水资料 气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-08-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018-10-30 |
The spatio-temporal change characteristics of net primary productivity in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its future change with 2 ℃ global warming |
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| Bu LUO,Duo BIAN,Ma BAI,LhA Ba.The spatio-temporal change characteristics of net primary productivity in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its future change with 2 ℃ global warming[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2020,42(2):653-661. |
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| Authors: | Bu LUO Duo BIAN Ma BAI LhA Ba |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Plateau Meteorology，China Meteorological Administration，Chengdu 610000，China;2.Tibet Climate Center，Lhasa 850000，China;3.Information Network Center of Tibet Meteorological Bureau，Lhasa 850000，China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the TRMM satellite precipitation data and the observed temperature data， using the Thornthwaite Memorial model， the net primary production （NPP） variation in the alpine pastoral areas of northern Tibetan Plateau from 1998 to 2016 and the NPP variation tendency under the future climate change were estimated. The results show that the area with rising tendency of NPP in the study area， accounting for 71.9% of the total area， was greater than declining tendency. The average annual increase rate of NPP was 0.54%， and the temperature and precipitation had increased in the same period. NPP and temperature increased significantly around 2007. By analyzing the influence of climate factors on NPP， it was found that precipitation was the dominant factor in the region， and with the increase of latitude， the influence of temperature was more significant only in a small eastern region. It was estimated that the NPP changing tendency under climate change showed that the average state of NPP in the study area has almost no change under the three emission scenarios （RCP2.6， RCP4.5， RCP8.5）. The effect was only limited to the higher NPP areas in the southeast of the study region， where there was a slight improvement effect； the improvement effect was RCP8.5 ≈ RCP4.5 > RCP2.6， indicating that climate warming had limited effect on NPP improvement in the study area. |
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| Keywords: | alpine pastoral areas in northern Tibetan Plateau Thornthwaite Memorial model net primary productivity of vegetation （NPP） TRMM satellite precipitation data climate change |
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