| 中国冰冻圈水文未来变化及其对干旱区水安全的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁永建,赵求东,吴锦奎,张世强,王生霞,苌亚平,李向应,上官冬辉,韩海东,秦甲,韩添丁.中国冰冻圈水文未来变化及其对干旱区水安全的影响[J].冰川冻土,2020,42(1):23-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁永建 赵求东 吴锦奎 张世强 王生霞 苌亚平 李向应 上官冬辉 韩海东 秦甲 韩添丁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000;2.中国科学院 内陆河流域生态水文 重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000;3.中国科学院大学，北京 100049;4.西北大学 陕西省地表过程与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西 西安 710027;5.西北大学 城市与环境学院，陕西 西安 710027;6.河海大学 水文水资源学院，江苏 南京 210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41730751) |
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| 摘 要： | 受气候变暖持续影响， 中国冰冻圈水文过程正在发生着显著变化。在梳理已有过去冰冻圈融水变化基础上， 重点分析了冰冻圈融水径流未来变化特点， 尤其是对冰川融水拐点及温升2 ℃阈值情况下， 到2050年和21世纪末， 冰川融水的可能变化进行了辨析， 进而研判了冰冻圈水文变化对流域、 重点是干旱区内陆河流域水安全的影响。研究表明， 中国未来大部分流域冰川融水径流总体呈现减少趋势， 并呈现冰川径流持续减少、 在不久的将来出现峰值和持续增加三种情况； 单条冰川融水可能会出现拐点， 而且拐点是否出现和出现的时间与升温速率和冰川面积大小有关； 在流域尺度上， 冰川覆盖率较大、 大型冰川面积占比较高的流域， 到2050年融水径流持续稳定增加； 冰川规模较小的流域， 冰川径流峰值早已出现； 介于上述两种情况之间的大多数流域， 冰川融水峰值在2020 - 2030年相继出现或变化呈现不显著增加或减少， 相对稳定； RCP情景温升2 ℃阈值下， 到21世纪末， 西北干旱区冰川融水量减少34% ~ 74%。冰冻圈水文变化导致水源涵养能力下降、 径流补给量减少、 对水资源的调节作用减弱、 流域径流变化幅度增加、 发生旱涝的风险增加、 春汛提前进而影响用水制度。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰冻圈水文 冰川融水 未来变化 影响 水安全 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-05-13 |
The future changes of Chinese cryospheric hydrology and their impacts on water security in arid areas |
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| Yongjian DING,Qiudong ZHAO,Jinkui WU,Shiqiang ZHANG,Shengxia WANG,Yaping CHANG,Xiangying LI,Donghui SHANGGUAN,Haidong HAN,Jia QIN,Tianding HAN.The future changes of Chinese cryospheric hydrology and their impacts on water security in arid areas[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2020,42(1):23-32. |
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| Authors: | Yongjian DING Qiudong ZHAO Jinkui WU Shiqiang ZHANG Shengxia WANG Yaping CHANG Xiangying LI Donghui SHANGGUAN Haidong HAN Jia QIN Tianding HAN |
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| Abstract: | Continuously affected by climate warming， the hydrological processes are undergoing significant changes in Chinese cryosphere. Based on the summaries of the past changes of cryospheric meltwater， this paper focuses on the analysis of the future change characteristics of the cryospheric meltwater runoff， especially the tipping point of glacier meltwater and possible trend of glacier meltwater corresponding to an air temperature rise threshold of 2.0 ℃ by the middle and end of the 21st century. Furthermore， we study the impacts of cryospheric hydrological changes on water security of river basins， especially in arid inland river basins. The results show that the glacier meltwater runoff will decrease in most catchments of China. The future changes of glacier runoff will show three types： continued decrease， reaching peak in the near future and sustainable increase in catchment scale. The meltwater of single glacier will likely reach tipping point in future. And there are good relationships between the occurrence time of tipping point and the rising temperature rate and glacier size. The glacier runoff will still increase steadily until 2050 in the high glacierized basins consisted of large glaciers. While the glacier runoff has reached the tipping point in small glacierized basins. For other glacier catchments， the glacier runoff will reach peak point or show no significant change until 2020 - 2030. Overall， the glacier meltwater will decrease by 34% - 74% in northwest arid regions corresponding to an air temperature rise threshold of 2.0 ℃ under RCP global emission scenarios by the end of the 21st century. The cryospheric hydrology changes will lead to the decrease of water supply， conservation and regulation capacity， the increase of variation coefficient of annual runoff and drought/flood risk， and the advance of spring flood， which can further affect the water utilization system. |
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| Keywords: | cryospheric hydrology glacier meltwater future change impacts water security |
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