| INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄先香 炎利军 施能 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical ＆ Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080 China [2]Foshan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong 528000 China [3]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster and Environmental Variation, Nanj ing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanj ing 210044 China |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;热带海洋气象科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | By using the significance test of two-dimensional wind field anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind field anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the annually first rainy season in south China. Results show that western Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and central Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northern India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March.
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| 关 键 词： | 统计管理 风速 降水 洪水 |
INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA |
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| HUANG Xian-xiang,YAN Li-jun,SHI Neng.INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2007,13(1):25-28. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Xian-xiang YAN Li-jun SHI Neng |
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| Abstract: | By using the significance test of two-dimensional wind field anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind field anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the annually first rainy season in south China. Results show that western Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and central Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northern India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March. |
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| Keywords: | statistical tests of wind fields flood/drought prediction methods |
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