A probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment |
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| Authors: | Crispin M Mutshinda Imoh Antai Robert B O’Hara |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Mathematics and Statistics,University of Helsinki,Helsinki,Finland;2.Department of Marketing, Supply Chain Management and Corporate Geography,Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Hanken,Helsinki,Finland |
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| Abstract: | The introduction of hazardous substances into the environment has long been recognized as being a cause of several diseases
in humans, wildlife, and plants. The damaging character of suspected contaminants is usually assessed via a “reject/retain”
design with no explicit link between levels of exposure and intensities of the potential adverse health effects even though
this connection may be important for the development of public health regulations that limit exposure to hazardous substances.
Here, we propose a probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment as a way around this typical flaw. We develop a Bayesian
model using proximity to the source of an alleged contaminant as a surrogate for exposure. Subsequently, we carry out an experimental
study based on simulated data to illustrate the model implementation with real world data. We also discuss a possible way
of extending the model to accommodate potential heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the focal disease. |
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| Keywords: | Environmental hazards Inverse square law Environmental risk assessment Spatial heterogeneity |
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