| 中国水产养殖产业演化影响因素研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李思敏,孙龙启,张迪,刘东.中国水产养殖产业演化影响因素研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2022,39(1):102-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李思敏 孙龙启 张迪 刘东 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海洋大学经济管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 现代农业产业技术体系专项资金资助 (CARS-47-G29). |
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| 摘 要： | 水产养殖业在我国渔业产业结构中占据重要地位,在促进我国渔业经济发展中发挥着重要作用。当前渔业正处于由要素驱动向创新驱动转型的新旧动能转换时期,这也对水产养殖业的转型升级提出了更高要求。文章根据产业演化路径及其运行机理,从资源、技术、市场、制度4个方面构建指标体系,采用1998—2019年的指标数据,通过灰色关联分析和岭回归分析,探索影响产业演化的因素,探讨不同影响因素对水产养殖业演化发展的影响程度,以期为促进中国水产养殖产业的发展,增强水产养殖业的竞争力提供理论支撑。结果表明,城镇居民人均水产品消费量对中国水产养殖产业演化影响程度最大,GDP及单位面积产量的影响显著,水产技术推广经费支出影响最小。基于此,为促进我国水产养殖业的转型升级提出做好水产品消费需求引领与管理、拓展国内国际消费市场;增加科技投入,发展养殖技术;加大资源保护力度,推进绿色发展;着力解决养殖水产品质量安全问题等相应对策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 水产养殖业 产业演化 灰色关联分析 岭回归 渔业经济 |
Study on the Influence Factors of the Evolution of Aquaculture in China |
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| LI Simin,SUN Longqi,ZHANG Di,LIU Dong.Study on the Influence Factors of the Evolution of Aquaculture in China[J].Ocean Development and Management,2022,39(1):102-109. |
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| Authors: | LI Simin SUN Longqi ZHANG Di LIU Dong |
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| Institution: | College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University |
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| Abstract: | Aquaculture plays an important role in fishery structure and economy in China. At present, fishery industry is in a period of transformation from elements-driven to innovation-driven, which has put forward higher requirements for the transformation and upgrading of the aquaculture. This study was based on industry evolution path and running mechanism, from the aspects of resources, technology, market, system, by using the index data from 1998 to 2019, through the grey relation analysis and ridge regression analysis, to explore the factors affecting the evolution of industry and study the effects of different factors on the degree of influence on the development of the aquaculture evolution, to promote the development of China''s aquaculture industry and strengthen the competitiveness of aquaculture to provide theoretical support. The results showed that the per capita consumption of aquatic products of urban residents had the greatest impact on the evolution of China''s aquaculture. The GDP and output per unit area had significant impact, and the expenditure of aquatic technology promotion had the least impact. Therefore, to promote the transformation and upgrading in China''s aquaculture, the following suggestions were put forward that we should promote the leading and management about aquatic product consumption, expand domestic and international consumer market, increase investment in science and technology and develop breeding technology, strengthen resource protection and promote green development and resolve the problems about quality and safety of aquaculture products. |
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| Keywords: | Aquaculture Industrial evolution Grey relational analysis Ridge regression Fishery economy |
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