| 民机阵风载荷测量试飞颠簸潜势诊断技术研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 闫文辉,黄兴友,赵钰锦,张莹,杨涛.民机阵风载荷测量试飞颠簸潜势诊断技术研究[J].热带气象学报,2022,38(1):113-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 闫文辉 黄兴友 赵钰锦 张莹 杨涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国飞行试验研究院气象台，陕西 西安 710089 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1506102中国航空工业集团公司雷华电子技术研究所项目MJ-2018-S-28 |
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| 摘 要： | 为确保民机阵风载荷测量试飞的质量和效率，规避风险，保障安全，解决“找风难”问题，从飞行员飞机颠簸报告入手，利用欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的ERA5全球大气再分析资料，基于10个预报效果较为理想的颠簸指数，通过加权集成算法给出了高空急流背景下的颠簸潜势综合指数。综合指数中单一指数的权重是通过发生颠簸的预报准确率PODY、未发生颠簸的预报准确率PODN、总体预报准确率PODA及TSS评分及中度以上颠簸所占面积fMOG五项评价指标共同确定的。同时评估了颠簸潜势综合指数性能对单一指数数量的敏感性以及对参与建模样本量的敏感性。结果表明:Dutton指数因预报得分φ达1.043，是这10个单一指数中总体预报效果最好的，Brown指数、L-P指数次之。由Dutton指数、Brown指数、L-P指数、TI1指数及风相关指数加权集成的综合指数，较好地集成了各单一指数的优点，各项指标均较为优秀，PODA达90%，TSS达0.80，fMOG达9.2%，预报得分φ达1.225，总体效果最好。随着单一指数数量的增加，综合指数的诊断效果先增大后减小，当单一指数增加到5个的时候，效果最优。随着参与建模的飞机颠簸样本量增加，综合指数性能逐步提升。该综合指数能较好地解决民机阵风载荷测量试飞潜在颠簸区域寻找的问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 飞机颠簸 ERA5再分析资料 颠簸指数 高空急流 模型评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-15 |
RESEARCH ON DIAGNOSIS TECHNIQUE OF TURBULENCE POTENTIAL FOR CIVIL AIRCRAFT GUST LOAD MEASUREMENT FLIGHT TESTS |
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| YAN Wenhui,HUANG Xingyou,ZHAO Yujin,ZHANG Ying,YANG Tao.RESEARCH ON DIAGNOSIS TECHNIQUE OF TURBULENCE POTENTIAL FOR CIVIL AIRCRAFT GUST LOAD MEASUREMENT FLIGHT TESTS[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2022,38(1):113-123. |
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| Authors: | YAN Wenhui HUANG Xingyou ZHAO Yujin ZHANG Ying YANG Tao |
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| Institution: | 1.Meteorological Observatory of Chinese Flight Test Establishment, Xi'an 710089, China2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
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| Abstract: | To ensure the quality and efficiency of civil aircraft gust load measurement flight tests, avoid risks, ensure safety, and overcome the difficulty in finding turbulence, this paper starts with the pilot reports of aircraft turbulence and uses the ERA5 reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast to give a comprehensive forecast index for turbulence potential under the background of upper-level jets. Research methods include the use of the weighted integration algorithm based on ten predictable aircraft turbulence indexes. The weight of a single index in the comprehensive index is jointly determined by five evaluation indicators, namely the forecast accuracy of turbulence (PODY), the forecast accuracy of null turbulence (PODN), the overall forecast accuracy (PODA), the true skill score (TSS) and the area occupied by the moderate or greater turbulence (fMOG). The results show that the Dutton index has the best overall forecast performance among these 10 single indexes as its forecast score φ is 1.043, followed by Brown index and L-P index. The comprehensive index developed from Dutton index, Brown index, L-P index, TI1 index and wind-related index integrates the advantages of each single index with its individual index all being relatively superior. Its PODA reaches 90%, the TSS reaches 0.80, the fMOG reaches 9.2%, the forecast score φ reaches 1.225, and the overall effect is the best. As the number of single index increases, the diagnostic effect of the comprehensive index increases first and then decreases. When the number of single index increases to 5, the effect becomes optimal. As the number of aircraft turbulence samples involved in modeling increases, the performance of the comprehensive index gradually improves. This comprehensive index can facilitate the search for potential turbulence areas in civil aircraft gust load measurement flight tests. |
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| Keywords: | aircraft turbulence ERA5 reanalysis data turbulence index upper-level jets model evaluation |
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