| 基于博弈模型的中美气候谈判策略模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 金朱钢,蔡闻佳,王灿.基于博弈模型的中美气候谈判策略模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(5):350-356. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金朱钢 蔡闻佳 王灿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.清华大学地球系统科学研究中心,北京 100084；
2 清华大学环境学院,北京 100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 中美在气候谈判中的共识和分歧已成为影响未来气候谈判走向的重要因素。基于效用和博弈理论，考虑温升幅度及其对GDP影响等因素的不确定性，以及气候变化相关投资对各国净现值效用的负面、正面和外溢影响，对中美气候谈判进行博弈策略模拟及敏感性分析。结果表明，中美气候谈判博弈存在先动劣势，且中美在非合作博弈下的气候变化投资远远无法实现全球2℃控温目标；在合作博弈情景下，为确保实现全球温升控制目标的合作框架的稳定和双赢，未来的气候制度框架需要关注对中国的技术、资金支持和补偿。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候谈判 效用 博弈 策略 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-02-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013-03-25 |
Simulation of Climate Negotiation Strategies Between China and the US Based on Game Theory |
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| Jin Zhugang Cai Wenjia Wang Can.Simulation of Climate Negotiation Strategies Between China and the US Based on Game Theory[J].Advances in Climate Change,2013,9(5):350-356. |
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| Authors: | Jin Zhugang Cai Wenjia Wang Can |
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| Institution: | 1.Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2.School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Consensus and disagreements between China and the US are the key factors influencing the direction that global climate negotiation is heading for. By taking into account the uncertainties of temperature increment and its impact on GDP growth, together with the positive, negative and spillover effects of climate change investment on utility, a strategic simulation model including China and the US is developed based on utility and game theory, and sensitivity analyses are also carried out. The results show that first-mover disadvantage exists in the game, and the scale of each country’s climate change investment under non-cooperate scenario is too tiny to reach the 2℃increment target. To ensure the stability and win-win basis for global cooperation, the simulation results also indicate that it makes sense to pay attention to the assistance and compensation of technology and funding to China. |
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| Keywords: | climate negotiation utility game theory strategy |
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