Analysis of extreme temperatures for four sites across Peninsular Spain |
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| Authors: | Dolores Furi?? Vicente Meneu |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Financial Economics, University of Valencia (Spain), Avenida de los Naranjos, s/n, 46022, Valencia, Spain
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| Abstract: | Statistical analyses regarding climate studies have often used the average temperature as one of the main variables. However, the tails of the respective distributions are also crucial and have become increasingly considered in recent years. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its fourth assessment report (IPCC 2007) states, ??the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth??s climate changes??. In this paper, the focus is on the statistical behaviour of extreme (maximum and minimum) values of temperature, both in winter and summer. Under the framework of the Extreme Value Theory, the methodology of block maxima is employed. The generalised extreme value distribution, allowing for a linear trend in the location parameter, is fitted to data in order to capture the time tendency in the non-stationary processes. We are able to approximate expected values with a determined probability and to identify time trends of such events. Particularly, an increasing time trend in maximum and minimum temperature is generally detected which could be of great concern to public and private sectors. |
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