Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA |
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| Authors: | Kelsey N Scheitlin James B Elsner Shawn W Lewers Jill C Malmstadt Thomas H Jagger |
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| Institution: | 1. Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
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| Abstract: | Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change. |
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