| 汾渭地震带地震趋势数学建模分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛丁,王立巍,赵蒙生.汾渭地震带地震趋势数学建模分析[J].地震,2010,30(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛丁 王立巍 赵蒙生 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古自治区地震局,呼和浩特市,010010
2. 海拉尔地震台,呼伦贝尔市,021008 |
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| 摘 要： | 按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震带的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了汾渭地震带1000年以来MS4.7以上地震,这样的地震资料应具有地质单元的统一性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1—2年时间尺度预测。模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取。引用一种数学方法来描述汾渭地震带的地震趋势规律。
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| 关 键 词： | 汾渭地震带 地震趋势 数学建模 |
Mathmatical Modeling of Seismic Tendency for the Fenwei Seismic Zone |
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| XUE Ding,WANG Li-wei,ZhAO Meng-sheng.Mathmatical Modeling of Seismic Tendency for the Fenwei Seismic Zone[J].Earthquake,2010,30(1). |
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| Authors: | XUE Ding WANG Li-wei ZhAO Meng-sheng |
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| Institution: | 1.Earthquake Administration of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;Hohhot 010010;China;2.Hailaer Seismological Station;Hulunbeier city 021008;China |
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| Abstract: | According to the structure division result of active block and seismic zone, we select the M_S≥4.7 earthquakes the Fenwei seismic zone using MAPSIS software. This data may have the characteristic of one geology unit. Using the 19-order non-linear mathmatical polynomial whose correlation coefficients can be obtained by the method of least squares, we made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in 1 to 2 years′ time. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in the Fenwei seismic zone. |
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| Keywords: | Fenwei seismic zone Seismic tendency Mathmatical modeling |
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