| 广东气候年景的客观定量化评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 伍红雨,邹燕,郭尧.广东气候年景的客观定量化评估[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(3):516-524. |
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| 作者姓名： | 伍红雨 邹燕 郭尧 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省气候中心,广东广州510641;中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510641;福建省气候中心,福建福州350001;南加利福尼亚大学,加利福尼亚洛杉矶90007 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省科技计划资助项目（2017B020244002；2017B030314140）；广东省气象局科研资助项目（GRMC2019M10）；广东省气候中心业务科研资助项目（QH201705） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961—2017年广东86个地面气象观测站逐日降水、气温以及气象干旱指数(Drought Index,DI)资料,建立了综合考虑雨涝、低温、干旱和高温这4个方面的广东气候年景客观定量评估方法,对广东气候年景进行客观定量评估,并应用实况灾情对评估结果进行验证。结果表明,近57 a来,广东雨涝和干旱年景指数变化趋势不显著,而低温年景指数呈显著下降的趋势,高温年景指数呈显著上升的趋势。近57 a来,广东综合气候年景指数以0.06/(10 a)的速率下降,但下降趋势不明显。评估得到广东气候年景评估结果与灾害实况大部相符,气候年景为差的年份有5 a:1963年、1969年、1993年、2001年、2008年。研究结果为广东客观定量的气候年景评估业务和决策服务提供技术依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候年景 客观定量评估 广东 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/3/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/5/27 0:00:00 |
Objective assessment of annual climate status in Guangdong |
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| WU Hongyu,ZOU Yan and GUO Yao.Objective assessment of annual climate status in Guangdong[J].大气科学学报,2020,43(3):516-524. |
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| Authors: | WU Hongyu ZOU Yan and GUO Yao |
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| Institution: | Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510641, China;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510641, China,Climate Center of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350001, China and University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90007, USA |
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| Abstract: | Using daily precipitation and temperature of 86 meteorological observation stations in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017,along with meteorological drought index data DI,the objective and quantitative assessment methods for annual climate status in Guangdong were established,with comprehensive consideration of the four aspects of rain-waterlogging,low temperature,drought and high temperature.The annual climate status in Guangdong was objectively and quantitatively assessed,and actual disaster situations were used to verify the evaluation results.The results show that the trend of the annual climate status index of the rain-waterlogging and drought in Guangdong has not changed significantly over the past 57 years;however,the annual climate status index of low temperature decreased dramatically,while the annual climate status index of high temperature increased substantially.The annual climate status index of the rain waterlogging in Guangdong decreased at a rate of 0.06/10 a over the past 57 years,but the trend was not obvious.The evaluation results of the annual climate status were consistent with the disaster situation.The evaluation results reveal that there were five poor climate years,namely 1963,1969,1993,2001 and 2008.The research results provide a technical basis for the objective and quantitative climate assessment business and decision-making services performed in Guangdong. |
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| Keywords: | Annual climate status objective assessment Guangdong |
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