| ENSO与西北太平洋强TC相关关系年代际变化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陶丽,蓝玉峰,孔承承.ENSO与西北太平洋强TC相关关系年代际变化研究[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(5):596-607. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陶丽 蓝玉峰 孔承承 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210044;广西壮族自治区气象培训中心, 广西 南宁 530022;宁夏回族自治区固原市泾源县气象局, 宁夏 固原 756400 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFA0600402）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41375098）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC),中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)上海台风所,日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)的台风最佳路径资料以及美国NCAR/NCEP再分析资料等,深入研究厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与西北太平洋强热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC),即1 min最大风速大于等于114 kn相关关系的变化。结果表明,ENSO与热带西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)强TC频数之间的相关关系存在明显年代际变化。在1960—1971年期间(前一阶段),强TC年频数与Ni1o3. 4(11月—次年1月平均)相关性较弱;而在1983—2014年期间(后一阶段)两者的相关性则为强的正相关。并且强TC的年频数、生命史以及生成位置在后一阶段El Ni1o和La Ni1a年之间的差异相比前一阶段都有明显的增大。进一步分析发现:热带太平洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)的西移是造成后一阶段Ni1o3. 4指数与强TC年频数相关性提高的关键因素。在后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年,SSTA的西移使得WNP东南象限的相对湿度明显增加(减少),从而有利于(不利于) TC在此象限生成。又因为位于东南象限的TC比较容易发展成强TC,因此导致后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年有更多(更少)的强TC在西北太平洋的东南象限生成。
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| 关 键 词： | 西北太平洋 ENSO 强TC 年代际变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/9/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/3/2 0:00:00 |
Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the intense tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean and the ENSO |
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| TAO Li,LAN Yufeng and KONG Chengcheng.Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the intense tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean and the ENSO[J].大气科学学报,2018,41(5):596-607. |
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| Authors: | TAO Li LAN Yufeng and KONG Chengcheng |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Guangxi Meteorological Training Centre, Nanning 530022, China;Jingyuan Meteorological Bureau, Guyuan, Ningxia 756400, China |
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| Abstract: | The interdecadal variations of the relationship between the intense tropical cyclone(TC) over the western North Pacific Ocean(WNP) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), were examined based on the TC Best Track data(JTWC, CMA, and JMA) and the reanalysis data of the NCAR/NCEP. It was determined that during the period ranging from 1960 to 1971(first examined period), the intense TC frequencies and the NDJ Niño3.4 were not statistically correlated. Meanwhile, during the period ranging from 1983 to 2014(second examined period), they were found to be closely correlated. Moreover, the differences in the life spans and genesis locations of TC45 between the El Niño developing years and the La Niña developing years had become enlarged in the more recent years, when compared to those during the prior period. The results of this study''s analysis revealed that the westward extensions of the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the more recent period were key factors in the enhancement of the relationship between the Niño3.4 index and the annual TC45 frequency. The extensions of the SSTA caused significant increases(decreases) of the relative humidity in the southeastern quadrant of the tropical WNP for the El Niño(La Niña) developing years during the period ranging from 1983 to 2014, which was favorable(unfavorable) to the TC genesis and affected the TC45 frequency variations with the ENSO events during the more recent period. This was due to the fact that the TC in southeastern quadrant was more likely to intensify into the TC45. During the period ranging from 1983 to 2014, more(less) TC45 occurred in the southeastern quadrant for the El Niño(La Niña) developing years. |
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| Keywords: | Western North Pacific Ocean TC45 interdecadal variations ENSO |
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