The response of the ‘green revolution’ to climatic variability |
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| Authors: | Patrick J Michaels |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, 22903 Charlottesville, VA, USA |
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| Abstract: | The purpose of this research is to assess the climatic sensitivity of high yielding variety (‘HYV’) ‘green revolution’ wheat.
Improved multiple regression models were constructed for yields in India and Sonora, Mexico — the two most intensively planted
regions in the world. After isolating the most important climatic predictors (which, not surprisingly, are total rainfall
over the irrigation basins), the models were reduced to the pre-HYV period, and then re-run with successively more years of
HYV input. This test indicated that increased adoption of the HYV package is associated with a significant increase in yield
sensitivity to the most important climatic determinants of yield.
To serve as a control, the U.S. Winter Wheat region was also modelled with a similar method. Overall, there is no significant
increase in yield sensitivity to climate during the same period that HYV's were adopted in Mexico and India.
Assuming that there is no change in overall climatic variability, this study indicates that production will nonetheless become
more variable, particularly as HYV culture is expanded. Ironically, countries with rapidly expanding populations, that rely
increasingly on HYV's, will experience the most significant fluctuations. |
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