| 基于降水量的全国地质灾害潜势预报模式 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚学祥,徐晶,薛建军,张芳华,牛若芸.基于降水量的全国地质灾害潜势预报模式[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(4):97-102,129. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚学祥 徐晶 薛建军 张芳华 牛若芸 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津市气象局,天津,300074
2. 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局应用技术推广（地质灾害气象预报警报系统一期建设项目）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1949～2003午的地质灾害资料和气象资料，文章分析了我国滑坡泥石流等地质灾害的时空分布特点及其与降雨的关系，指出我国地质灾害的发生在空间上具有广域性、地域性和局地性，在时间上具有季节性、夜发性和午际变化等特点，这些特点与降雨量分布的关系非常密切，说明降雨是滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的主要激发因子。进一步研究表明：降雨诱发地质灾害可归纳为三种概念模型，即：当日大降雨型、持续降雨型、前期降雨型。在根据最新资料进行的地质灾害气象预警区划的基础上，分区建立了基于降雨量观测和预报的地质灾害气象统计潜势预报模式，并以此模式为主要技术方法建立了全国地质灾害气象预警业务系统，经过2003年和2004午汛期业务应用检验表明，具有较好效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 泥石流 滑坡 预报方法 全国地质灾害气象预警系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8035（2005）04-0097-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-08-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-08-302005-04-06 |
A potential forecast model for geological-related disasters based on precipitation |
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| YAO Xue-xiang,XU Jing,XUE Jian-jun,ZHANG Fang-hua,NIU Ruo-yun.A potential forecast model for geological-related disasters based on precipitation[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2005,16(4):97-102,129. |
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| Authors: | YAO Xue-xiang XU Jing XUE Jian-jun ZHANG Fang-hua NIU Ruo-yun |
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| Institution: | 1. Tianjin Meteorological Bureau, Tianjing 300074, China; 2. National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China |
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| Abstract: | Most geological-related disasters were induced by rainfall.Based on the regressive relationship between the disaster occurrence and rainfall,a meteorological-statistical potential forecast model for geological disasters was developed as a part of the joint project undertaken by China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and Land Resource Ministry(LRM).The forecast has been launched into operation since June 1,2003,when a national geological disasters warning system via public media was set up by CMA and LRM.In the paper we also reviewed the forecast and warning system and preseuted some valuable suggestions at the end. |
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| Keywords: | geological disasters debris flow landslide forecast method geological havard meteorological early warning system in whole country |
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