| 基于人工神经网络的集成预报方法研究和比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 金龙,陈宁,林振山.基于人工神经网络的集成预报方法研究和比较[J].气象学报,1999,57(2):198-207. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金龙 陈宁 林振山 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气象科学研究所，南京大学大气科学系 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局“九五”项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 用人工神经网络方法对同一预报量的各个子预报方程进行集成预报研究，并以同样的子预报方程进行回归、平均和加权预报集成。对神经网络集成预报模型与各个子预报方程及其它集成预报方法进行了对比分析研究。结果表明，人工神经网络方法所构造的集成预报模型不仅对历史样本的拟合精度比各个子预报方法及其它集成预报方法更好，独立样本的试验预报结果也显示出更好的预报准确性。并且，采用神经网络方法进行预报集成，可以避免以往集成预报方法难以确定权重系数的困难
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| 关 键 词： | 神经网络，预报集成，长期预报，比较分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 1997/10/17 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998/2/17 0:00:00 |
STUDY AND COMPARISON OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTING BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK |
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| Jin Long,Chen Ning and Lin Zhenshan.STUDY AND COMPARISON OF ENSEMBLE FORECASTING BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1999,57(2):198-207. |
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| Authors: | Jin Long Chen Ning and Lin Zhenshan |
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| Institution: | Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanjing, 210008;Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanjing, 210008;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093 |
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| Abstract: | In terms of an artificial neural network(ANN), an ensemble forecasting for a number of submodels of the same predictand is established, and consensus forecast expressions of the regressing, average and weighted mean are formulated with the aid of the same submodels. Results show the ANN is superior in fittings and predictions compared to the submodels and other consensus forecast due to its self adaptive learning and nonlinear mapping. The ANN's ensemble forecasting is easy application in such a way to ascertain weighting coefficient, thus providing a new line for the research of prediction integrated on long term forecasting of flood and drought. |
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| Keywords: | Neural network Consensus forecast Long term forecasting Comparative analysis |
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