Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius,Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption |
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| Authors: | Laura Sandri Emanuela Guidoboni Warner Marzocchi Jacopo Selva |
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| Institution: | (1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Via Donato Creti, 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy |
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| Abstract: | Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce
volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic
code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption.
The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented
for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3)
the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more
than 2 months before the event. |
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