Model of fluctuations in bacteriological indices of water quality |
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| Authors: | B M Dolgonosov K A Korchagin E M Messineva |
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| Institution: | (1) Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russia;(2) MATI-Moscow State Technological University, ul. Orshanskaya 3, Moscow, 121552, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The bacteriological indices of water quality, including coliforms, sulfite-reducing clostridia, total microbial count, coliphages, and fecal streptococci were analyzed. A model describing fluctuations in microorganism population in the aquatic environment is proposed. A stochastic differential equation was obtained and used to derive a lognormal distribution of organism population. The model was applied to describe time series of bacteriological indices of the Moskva River Water Source. Satisfactory agreement was obtained between theoretical distributions and empirical data in a wide range of index values embracing one to three orders of variations in microorganism population. A forecast procedure was developed and applied to calculate the exceedance probabilities of different levels of bacterial pollution of the water source. Time periods with higher bacterial pollution were identified. |
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