Statistical Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Anomaly Groups in Hungary |
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| Authors: | P Domonkos |
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| Institution: | Department of Water Resource, University of Agricultural Science, G?d?lló, Hungary, HU
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| Abstract: | Summary Investigation of diurnal temperature data series in Hungary indicates that extreme anomalies often occur in groups. Periods
which include at least 3–6 extreme anomalous days with 3–5 times higher frequency relative to the climatological average are
referred to as periods of extremity (PE). Although PEs cover only 5–12% of the whole time-series (1901–1993), they include
40–90% of all days with extreme temperatures. This refers both to the positive and negative anomalies. This paper shows a
method for delimitation technique of PEs which is more suitable for the revelation of time-sequence structure of extreme temperature
value occurrences, than traditional investigations of daily or monthly values. As it was checked by Monte-Carlo simulations,
a one step autoregressive model, exhibiting nearly normal distribution gives a fairly good approach of extreme temperature
occurrences. However, significant differences between the statistical characteristics of real and simulated PEs are also experienced.
Statistical connections between PEs and macrocirculation are also investigated.
Received November 12, 1996 Revised July 6, 1997 |
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