Development,implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System |
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| Authors: | Philip Y Chu John G W Kelley Gregory V Mott Aijun Zhang Gregory A Lang |
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| Institution: | (1) Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, USA;(2) NOAA/NOS/CSDL, Silver Spring, MD, USA;(3) NOAA/NOS/CO-OPS, Silver Spring, MD, USA;(4) NOAA/OAR/GLERL, Ann Arbor, MI, USA |
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| Abstract: | The NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observations and numerical weather
prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature and currents, and two-dimensional
forecasts of water levels of the Great Lakes. This system, originally called the Great Lakes forecasting system (GLFS), was
developed at The Ohio State University and NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in 1989. In 1996,
a workstation version of the GLFS was ported to GLERL to generate semi-operational nowcasts and forecasts daily. In 2004,
GLFS went through rigorous skill assessment and was transitioned to the National Ocean Service (NOS) Center for Operational
Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) in Silver Spring, MD. GLOFS has been making operational nowcasts and forecasts
at CO-OPS since September 30, 2005. Hindcast, nowcast, and forecast evaluations using the NOS-developed skill assessment software
tool indicated both surface water levels and temperature predictions passed the NOS specified criteria at a majority of the
validation locations with relatively low root mean square error (4–8 cm for water levels and 0.5 to 1°C for surface water
temperatures). The difficulty of accurately simulating seiches generated by storms (in particular in shallow lakes like Lake
Erie) remains a major source of error in water level prediction and should be addressed in future improvements of the forecast
system. |
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