Latitude characteristics of the sunspot formation zone and the 11-year solar activity cycle |
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| Authors: | E V Miletskii V G Ivanov |
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| Institution: | 1.Main Astronomical Observatory,Russian Academy of Sciences,Pulkovo, St. Petersburg,Russia |
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| Abstract: | Using data of the extended Greenwich sunspot catalog for 1874–2006, annual average values of some quantities characterizing
the latitude distribution of sunspot activity have been calculated. The quantity describing the width of the sunspot formation
zone is closely correlated with the corresponding Wolf numbers. A latitude characteristic has been found that demonstrates
in a particular time interval in the fourth year after the maximum of the current 11-year cycle a high correlation with the
Wolf number at the maximum of the next cycle. This time interval is characterized by extreme differences between the speeds
of the motion of the mean latitude and the upper boundary of the sunspot formation zone. A model displaying good stability
and enabling forecasting of the amplitudes of the next 11-year cycles is constructed based on the found correlation. According
to these forecasts, the activity of the next (24th) cycle will be 20–30% higher than in the previous one. |
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