On Testing for Change in Extreme Events |
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| Authors: | Andrew R Solow |
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| Institution: | (1) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, U.S.A. |
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| Abstract: | A common problem in climatology is detecting a change in the frequency or magnitude of extreme events in an historical time series. This paper compares the performance of two general approaches to this problem in a simple situation. The first approach is based on modelling the entire distribution, while the second approach focuses on the tail of the distribution. Although the second approach has clear advantages, the results of this paper suggest that it can also involve a substantial loss of information. |
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