| 洪水预报自回归实时校正多步外延方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张娟,钟平安,徐斌,王凯,姚超宇.洪水预报自回归实时校正多步外延方法研究[J].水文,2019,39(6):41-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张娟 钟平安 徐斌 王凯 姚超宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水文水资源学院2.淮委水文局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC0405606）；国家自然科学基金项目(51579068)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2018B10514)； |
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| 摘 要： | 自回归模型在洪水预报实时校正中应用广泛。针对自回归模型进行连续多时段校正时中间误差系列缺失问题,提出一种基于历史洪水预报误差系列的样本重组自回归外延方法,以淮河流域王家坝断面为背景,选用洪量相对误差、洪峰相对误差、峰滞时间和确定性系数四个指标开展校正效果评估,并与时程递推外延方法对比。结果表明:样本重组外延方法可以提升洪水预报精度,延长洪水预报有效预见期,特别在降低洪量误差和提高洪水过程的拟合精度上优势更为显著。同时,该方法泛化能力较强,具有实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水预报 实时校正 自回归模型 多步外延方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/7/13 0:00:00 |
Research on Multi-step Epitaxy Method for Auto-regressive Real-time Correction of Flood Forecasting |
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| ZHANG Juan,ZHONG Ping-an,XU Bin,WANG Kai,YAO Chaoyu.Research on Multi-step Epitaxy Method for Auto-regressive Real-time Correction of Flood Forecasting[J].Hydrology,2019,39(6):41-45. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Juan ZHONG Ping-an XU Bin WANG Kai YAO Chaoyu |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2. Hydrology Bureau of the Huaihe Water Conservancy Commission, Bengbu 233001, China |
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| Abstract: | Auto -regressive model is widely used in real -time correction of flood forecasting. In order to solve the problem ofmissing intermediate error series in continuous multi-step epitaxy correction of auto-regressive correction model, this paper proposeda sample recombination auto-regressive epitaxy method based on historical flood forecasting error series. Taking the cross-section ofWangjiaba section in the Huaihe River basin as the study area, relative flood volume error, relative flood peak error, peak lag timeand deterministic coefficient were applied to evaluate the correction effect, and compared with the time history recursive epitaxymethod. The results show that the sample recombination epitaxy method can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and extendthe effective forecasting period, especially in reducing the flood volume error and improving the fitting precision of flood process. |
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| Keywords: | flood forecasting real-time correction auto-regressive model multi-step epitaxy method |
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