| Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region |
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| 作者姓名： | Koji DAIRAKU Seita EMORI Toru NOZAWA |
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| 作者单位： | Storm，Flood，and Landslide Research Department，National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention，Climate Risk Assessment Research Section，Center for Global Environmental Research，National Institute for Environmental Studies，Atmospheric Physics Section，Atmospheric Environment Division，National Institute for Environmental Studies |
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| 基金项目： | Acknowledgements. This study was conducted as one of the research activities of ＂Water Resources and Variability in Asia in the 21st Century＂ of the Research Fund to Promote Science and Technology of Japan＇s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology （MEXT） supervised by Dr. A. Kitoh of the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The work was partially supported by the Global Environment Research Fund of Japan＇s Ministry of the Environment （S-5-3）. The data used in this study were acquired as part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM）. The algorithms were developed by the TRMM Science Team. The data were processed by the TRMM Science Data and Information System （TSDIS） and the TRMM Office. |
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| 摘 要： | The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warmingrelated concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downsealing of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model （AGCM） experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricul
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| 关 键 词： | 水文变化 动力学 地方气候模型 亚洲 季风 |
| 收稿时间： | 15 February 2010 |
Impacts of global warming on hydrological cycles in the Asian monsoon region |
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| Koji DAIRAKU,Seita EMORI,Toru NOZAWA.Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2008,25(6):960-973. |
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| Authors: | Koji Dairaku Seita Emori Toru Nozawa |
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| Institution: | [1]Storm, Flood, and Landslide Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan [2]Climate Risk Assessment Research Section, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan [3]Atmospheric Physics Section, Atmospheric Environment Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan |
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| Abstract: | The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warming- related concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downscaling of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricultural season. |
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| Keywords: | hydrologic change dynamical downscaling regional climate model Asian monsoon region |
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