| 贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 尹力峰,李锰,等.贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用[J].高原地震,2001,13(4):34-40. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 尹力峰 李锰 等 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局，新疆乌鲁木齐830011 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 概率理论为大量工程应用中包含的不确定性分析及影响提供了数学依据。本讨论贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用。贝叶斯模型假定分布参数为未知的随机变量，充分利用主观判断和观测数据通过贝叶斯公式得到房屋震害概率的合理估计，以地震考察取得的永恒破坏资料为基础，举例说明了贝叶斯模型的实际应用，内容涉及到概率平均分布函数，贝叶斯估计贝叶斯更新概率等重要概念，还讨论了1次地震事件及连发地震事件的影响所基于贝叶斯模型建立的永恒震害矩阵适用于成丛型地震的震害预测。
|
| 关 键 词： | 震害预测 贝叶斯模型 连发地震事件 概率理论 建筑物 |
APPLICATION OF BEIYES MODEL IN EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PREDICTION OF BUILDINGS |
| |
| YIN Li-feng,LI Meng,SONG Li-jun.APPLICATION OF BEIYES MODEL IN EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PREDICTION OF BUILDINGS[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2001,13(4):34-40. |
| |
| Authors: | YIN Li-feng LI Meng SONG Li-jun |
| |
| Abstract: | Probability theory provides mathematical basis to apply uncertain analysis to engineering. The application of Beiyes model in earthquake damage prediction of buildings is discussed in the paper.Beiyes model supposes distribution parameter is unknown random variable. It utilizes subjective judgement and objective basis to estimate earthquake damage probability of buildings through Beiyes theoretical formula. Based on earthquake damage of house obtained by earthquake investigation, the model is explained. Contents of the paper involves some concepts: average distributional function of probability, estimation of Beiyes, renew probability of Beiyes, etc. Earthquake damage probability matrix of established based on one and continuous events is applicable to like jungle earthquakes. |
| |
| Keywords: | Earthquake damage prediction Beiyes model Continuous earthquake events |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
