On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources |
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| Authors: | Charles A Stock Michael A Alexander Nicholas A Bond Keith M Brander William WL Cheung Enrique N Curchitser Thomas L Delworth John P Dunne Stephen M Griffies Melissa A Haltuch Jonathan A Hare Anne B Hollowed Patrick Lehodey Simon A Levin Jason S Link Kenneth A Rose Ryan R Rykaczewski Jorge L Sarmiento Ronald J Stouffer Franklin B Schwing Francisco E Werner |
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| Institution: | 1. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l''Environnement (CNRS/CEA/UVSQ), Orme des Merisiers, Point Courrier 132, Bât. 712, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France;2. CNRM–GAME, Météo-France, CNRS, UMR 3589, 42, avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France;3. Laboratoire de Physique des Océans (LPO/IRD/UMR6539), IUEM Technopôle Brest-Iroise, rue Dumont d''Urville, 29280 Plouzané, France;4. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, CRH, av. Jean Monnet, B.P. 171, 34203 Sète cedex, France;5. International Laboratory ICEMASA, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701 Cape Town, South Africa;6. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA |
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| Abstract: | The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models. |
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