| SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL |
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| 作者姓名： | LIU Yao-bin LI Ren-dong LI Chun-hua |
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| 作者单位： | 1. School of Management，China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou 221008，P. R. China; 2. Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Research，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Wuhan 430077，P. R. China; 3. Institute of Resource，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，P. R. China |
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| 基金项目： | UndertheauspicesofKnowledgeInnovationProgramofChineseAcademyofSciences(No.KZCX2-SW-415) |
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| 摘 要： | 1IN T R O D U C T IO NU rbanizationand eco-environment coupling is uniqueand complex,and itsmechanisms and ruleshave pro-voked much scholarship(B RENNA,1999).More than100yearsago,HOWARD(1898)publishedG ardenC ities of Tom orrow to revealthe interrelationshibpes-tween citygrowth and itseco-environment,and he triedtodealwiththeissuewithrationalplanningway,buthefailed(BOURNE and SIMMONS,1978).However,onlysincethe1920s had thetopicspeciallybeen intensfiied.AftertheChicago schoolhad…
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| 关 键 词： | 江苏 经济建设 生态经济学 系统动力学模型 城市化 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0063（2005）03-0219-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-05-09 |
Scenarios simulation of coupling system between urbanization and eco-environment in Jiangsu province based on system dynamics model |
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| LIU Yao-bin LI Ren-dong LI Chun-hua.SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2005,15(3):219-226. |
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| Authors: | Liu Yao-bin Li Ren-dong Li Chun-hua |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,P. R. China;2.Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan,P. R. China;3.Institute of Resource,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized. |
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| Keywords: | urbanization eco-environment system dynamics model simulation Jiangsu Provincel |
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