Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the confounding impacts of sea level rise and tides from storm induced coastal flooding in the city of Shanghai,China |
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| Authors: | Jie Yin Zhan-e Yin Xiao-meng Hu Shi-yuan Xu Jun Wang Zhi-hua Li Hai-dong Zhong Fu-bin Gan |
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| Institution: | (1) Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Rd., 200062 Shanghai, People’s Republic of China;(2) Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilin Rd., 200234 Shanghai, People’s Republic of China;(3) Ningbo Academy of Ocean and Fishery, Ningbo, China |
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| Abstract: | Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat
topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm
surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future
and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach
and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts
are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package.
This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the
conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause
nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting
from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.). |
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