| 基于证据权法的公路路基岩溶塌陷危险性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙琳,任娜娜,李云安,胡乐健.基于证据权法的公路路基岩溶塌陷危险性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2019,30(3):94-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙琳 任娜娜 李云安 胡乐健 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学（武汉）工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFC0809400)“极端条件下的大区域电网设施安全保障技术”;国家自然科学基金-广东联合基金重点项目(U1711266) |
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| 摘 要： | 将证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶发育强度分区中,在工程作用下岩溶强发育区易发生岩溶塌陷。介绍了证据权模型的方法。在丹霞枢纽互通区域,应用Arc GIS将研究区划分为5m×5m的栅格,考虑地层岩性、地下水距地面距离、顶板厚度、距断层距离4个证据因子,然后进行证据因子优选,通过叠加分析,得出岩溶发育强度的后验概率,并进行条件独立性检验,利用CAPP曲线确定阈值将后验概率分区。应用ROC曲线进行预测的精度评价,预测正确概率为66.2%。最后结果表明,证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶方面可行。
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| 关 键 词： | 证据权模型 GIS 公路路基岩溶 精度评价 危险分区 |
Risk assessment on karst collapse of the highway subgrade based on weights of evidence method |
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| SUN Lin,REN Na’na,LI Yun’an,HU Lejian.Risk assessment on karst collapse of the highway subgrade based on weights of evidence method[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2019,30(3):94-100. |
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| Authors: | SUN Lin REN Na’na LI Yun’an HU Lejian |
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| Institution: | (Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,Hubei430074,China) |
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| Abstract: | The weights of evidence model is applied to the subdivision of highway subgrade which the karst is strongly developed. Karst collapse is easy to occur in areas with active engineering activities and strong karst development. Weights of evidence method is introduced. In the interchange area of Danxia Hub,ArcGIS is used to divide the study area into a grid of 5 m × 5 m. Including of the lithology,the distance from groundwater to the ground,the thickness of the roof,and the distance from the fault,four evidential factors are selected and then optimized. Through the overlay analysis,the posterior probability of karst-development intensity was obtained,and the conditional independence test was performed. The CAPP( Cumulative AreaPosterior Probability) curve was used to determine the threshold to partition the posterior probability. The ROC( Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the prediction. The correct probability of prediction was 66. 2%. The final result shows that the weights of evidence model is feasible in the application of karst in highway subgrade. |
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| Keywords: | weights of evidence model GIS highway subgrade karst accuracy evaluation dangerous partition |
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