| 豫北多时效归一化棉铃虫气象预报模式 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾金明,张相梅,郭明荣,李改琴,王春铃,毛桂萍,李汉浸.豫北多时效归一化棉铃虫气象预报模式[J].气象,2007,33(7):105-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾金明 张相梅 郭明荣 李改琴 王春铃 毛桂萍 李汉浸 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河南省濮阳市气象局,457000
2. 河南省濮阳市植保站 |
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| 摘 要： | 按照棉铃虫繁育规律,将棉铃虫周年活动期划分为秋季预蛹期、越冬期、春季羽化期、夏季危害期4个阶段,分阶段选取有昆虫学、统计学意义的气象因子,通过归一化处理和加权组合,组成棉铃虫气象指数,建立多时效、归一化棉铃虫气象预报模式和分析、评价指标。结果显示：气象条件与棉铃虫发生程度密切相关,各时段预报模式的复相关系数达0.7780~0.8780,回代拟合率为96.7%,回归效果极显著。经试报应用,取得较好效果。结论认为：将诸多气象因子作无量纲化处理,不但便于因子间相互组合,还可提高模式的预报精度;将棉铃虫周年繁育期划分为秋季预蛹期、越冬期、春季羽化期、夏季危害期,突出了阶段性特点,分阶段组建预报模式,预报效果较好。对组合因子的生物学意义,有待生物学试验认定。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉铃虫 归一化 气象条件 模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/2/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-02-262007-04-13 |
Development and Application of Multi-effectiveness Normalized Prediction Model for Bollworm in Northern Henan Province |
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| Jia Jinming,Zhang Xiangmei,Guo Mingrong,Li Gaiqin,Wang Chunling,Mao Guiping and Li Hanjin.Development and Application of Multi-effectiveness Normalized Prediction Model for Bollworm in Northern Henan Province[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(7):105-111. |
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| Authors: | Jia Jinming Zhang Xiangmei Guo Mingrong Li Gaiqin Wang Chunling Mao Guiping and Li Hanjin |
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| Institution: | 1. Puyang Meteorological Office, Henan Province 457000; 2. Puyang Plant Protection Station |
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| Abstract: | According to the breeding behavior of bollworm, its anniversary activity can be divided into four phases: the Pupa in autumn, overwintering, eclosion in spring and damage in summer. For each phase, by selecting some meteorological parameters which is of entomological and statistical meaning a multi-effectiveness normalized meteorological prediction model of bollworm and analysis-evaluation indices are developed by normalized processing and weighted combination of parameters. It shows that occurrence of bollworm is closely related to the meteorological conditions. The complex correlation coefficients of each phase are 0.778-0.878, with the fit of 96.7%. The model has a good result in the practice.It concludes that the non-dimensional proc- essing of meteorological parameters is not only favorable to its combination each other, but also to increase the precise of model prediction. However the biological meanings of these combination parameters are to be defined through biological experiments. |
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| Keywords: | bollworm normalized meteorological condition process |
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