EU 20-20-20 energy policy as a model for global climate mitigation |
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| Authors: | Katherine Calvin Bjorn Bakken Marshall Wise Sonny Kim Patrick Luckow |
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| Institution: | 1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA;2. Energy Division, Sintef, Sem Saelands v 11, Trondheim 7465, Norway;3. Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., 485 Massachusetts Avenue, Suite 2, Cambridge MA 02139, USA |
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| Abstract: | The EU has established an aggressive portfolio with explicit near-term targets for 2020 – to reduce GHG emissions by 20%, rising to 30% if the conditions are right, to increase the share of renewable energy to 20%, and to make a 20% improvement in energy efficiency – intended to be the first step in a long-term strategy to limit climate forcing. The effectiveness and cost of extending these measures in time are considered along with the ambition and propagation to the rest of the world. Numerical results are reported and analysed for the contribution of the portfolio's various elements through a set of sensitivity experiments. It is found that the hypothetical programme leads to very substantial reductions in GHG emissions, dramatic increases in use of electricity, and substantial changes in land-use including reduced deforestation, but at the expense of higher food prices. The GHG emissions reductions are driven primarily by the direct limits. Although the carbon price is lower under the hypothetical protocol than it would be under the emissions cap alone, the economic cost of the portfolio is higher, between 13% and 22%. |
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| Keywords: | climate policy climate stabilization emissions mitigation energy policy |
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