| 新标准下空气质量预报指导产品对比检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晓敏,陈 静,钤伟妙,等.新标准下空气质量预报指导产品对比检验[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(3):97-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓敏 陈 静 钤伟妙 等 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了解和掌握上级指导产品对石家庄市空气质量预报的适用性,进一步提高石家庄市空气质量预报的准确性,利用国家气象中心(NMC)、北京区域气象中心(BJ)和河北省气象局(HB)空气质量预报产品,对石家庄市夏季4种主要污染物PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3和SO_2的预报进行了对比检验,结果表明:1)NMC对4种污染物的预报效果均逊于HB和BJ的,对PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)和SO_2的预报值明显较实况偏大,尤其在发生重污染天气时,对PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的空报率高达90%以上;2)HB对PM_(10)和SO_2的预报效果好于BJ的,对SO_2的预报值与实况值均在一个等级范围内,发生重污染天气时,对PM_(10)的预报效果好于BJ的,预报值更接近于实况,但对重污染向优、良转折天气的预报值偏高;3)BJ预报PM_(2.5)和O_3的效果好于HB的,对O_3的0级误差级别预报准确率高达90.5%,对PM_(2.5)优到轻度污染等级的预报效果较好,但对重污染天气的预报值低于实况。
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| 关 键 词： | 石家庄 空气质量 对比检验 相对误差 预报准确率 |
Contrast Tests of Air Quality Forecast Guidance Products Under the New Standard |
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| Wang Xiaomin,Chen Jing,Qian Weimiao,et al.Contrast Tests of Air Quality Forecast Guidance Products Under the New Standard[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2016,39(3):97-103. |
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| Authors: | Wang Xiaomin Chen Jing Qian Weimiao |
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| Abstract: | To understand and grasp the applicability of the superior guidance products in forecasting the air quality and to improve the accuracy of air quality forecast in Shijiazhuang,the forecast products from National Meteorological Center (NMC),Beijing Regional Meteorological Center (BJ) and Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau (HB) are compared with actual values in forecasting summer pollutant concentration of PM2.5,PM10,O3 and SO2 in Shijiazhuang.The main conclusions are as follows.1)The NMC is the worst in forecasting the four pollutants.The predictions of PM10,PM2.5 and SO2 pollutants are all larger than the actual concentration.The vacancy rate of the forecasting in PM10 and PM2.5 pollutant concentration is even up to 90% when heavy pollution occurred.2)HB is better than BJ in forecasting PM10 and SO2 pollutant concentration.The forecast and actual pollutant concentration of SO2 are in the same range.For PM10 at the time of heavy pollution,forecast values of HB are much closer to actual concentration than BJ.However,the HB prediction of PM10 is higher when the heavy pollution turns to excellent or good weather.3)BJ is better than HB in forecasting PM2.5 and O3.The forecast accuracy of O3 concentration in the 0 range is as high as 90.5% in BJ.BJ is better in forecasting PM2.5 in the range of excellent and mild concentration,but lower when heavy pollution occurred. |
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| Keywords: | Shijiazhuang air quality contrast test relative error forecast accuracy |
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