| 论过去资料在数值天气预报中使用的理论和方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 龚建东,丑纪范.论过去资料在数值天气预报中使用的理论和方法[J].高原气象,1999,18(3):392-399. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龚建东 丑纪范 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]兰州大学大气科学系 [2]甘肃省兰州市 |
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| 摘 要： | 对中国气象学家在数值天气预报中使用过去实况演变资料的理论和方法作卫概要性总结，其中不仅讨论了近期实况演变资料的应用，还了积累数十年的历史资料的应用问题。文中强调要改变对数值预报问题的提法，回顾了由初值问题改为演变问题，再改为反问题的历史。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值天气预报 历史资料 初值 演变问题 信息问题 |
The theories and methods of utilizing historical data in numerical weather forecast |
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| GONG Jian-dong,CHOU Ji-fan.The theories and methods of utilizing historical data in numerical weather forecast[J].Plateau Meteorology,1999,18(3):392-399. |
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| Authors: | GONG Jian-dong CHOU Ji-fan |
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| Abstract: | This paper summarizes theories and methods utilizing historical observation data presented by Chinese meteorologists in numerical weather prediction(NWP). Not only real present evolution data is discussed but also discussed the problem utilizing historical observation data that accumulated ten years. The anthors point out that it should change the way NWP is put forward and review the process of this change from initial condition problem to evolution problem and to again inverse problem. Based on the real problem characteristic, three idealized cases were classified: (1) both the numerical model and data is exactly credible but there are parameters without observation; (2) the data is credible but there is error in model; (3) the numerical model is credible but data has error. So called the four dimensional variational data assimilation is really belongs to the third case above, but it only utilize present evolution data and didn't utilize historical data. In real world, because both the model and data are not exactly credible, it should change forecast problem to information problem. In this way, we can assess the future weather probility by utilizing both historical observation data and physical law of atmospheric process evolution. |
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| Keywords: | Numerical weather prediction Historical data Initial condition and evolution problem Three kinds of inverse problems Information problem |
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