Possible precursory accelerated Benioff strain in the region of Sistan Suture Zone of Eastern Iran |
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| Authors: | Irene Sarkar |
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| Institution: | (1) IFS-Statistics, Massey University, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New Zealand;(2) Statistics Research Associates, P.O. Box 12649, Thorndon, Wellington, New Zealand;(3) Department of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC 29424, USA |
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| Abstract: | We investigated whether accelerated seismic strain release precedes large earthquakes occurring in and around the Sistan Suture
Zone, Eastern Iran. Online catalogs of teleseismic events occurring post-1960 within the region 27.0°–37.0°N, 55.0°–65.0°E,
report five M
w
> 7.0 earthquakes, namely, 1968 Dasht-e-Bayaz, 1978 Tabas, 1979 Khuli-Buniabad, 1981 Sirch and 1997 Zirkuh-e-Q’aenat events.
We defined four earthquake test episodes, 1968–1978, 1978–1981, 1979–1981, and 1981–1997, with all catalogued intermediate
events having magnitudes within 2.0 units that of the final large event. Using the 1968 event as the starting point, we investigated
possible increased moderate earthquake activity patterns prior to the large events of 1978, 1981 and 1997 by examining if
the cumulative Benioff strain released from such preceding events followed a power law time-to-failure. Our investigation
seem to suggest that the 1978, 1981 and 1997 events (i) followed a period of accelerated moderate earthquake activity and
(ii) the radius of their optimal critical region, R, scaled with their magnitude, M, according to the scaling law log R ∝ 0.36 M. Our suggestions conform to those proposed by similar investigations in varied seismotectonic regimes. |
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