Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China |
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| Authors: | Xiao-Gu Zheng David Vere-Jones |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Statistics and Operations Research, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M 7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. |
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| Keywords: | Historical seismicity North China stress release point processes risk forecasting Markov processes earthquake models simulation |
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