| 用多变量灰色预测模型模拟预测参考作物蒸散量的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王志强,朝伦巴根,柴建华.用多变量灰色预测模型模拟预测参考作物蒸散量的研究[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(4):584-588. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王志强 朝伦巴根 柴建华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010018
2. 内蒙古水利科学研究院,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010021 |
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| 摘 要： | 当观测资料的数据量少而又存在多个相互影响或关联的变量时,常用的灰色预测模型GM（1,1）不能全面考虑多个变量。为此,采用自适应MGM（1,n）模型—多变量灰色预测模型,较好地解决了这一问题。针对一些地区气象数据较少甚至缺失的情况,以内蒙古正蓝旗的气象资料用Penman-Monteith计算的参考作物蒸散量（ET0）为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论建立MGM（1,3）模型,模拟预测参考作物蒸散量变化规律,并与GM（1,1）模型和BP神经网络模型比较,结果表明MGM（1,3）模型有较好的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 参考作物蒸散量 灰色系统理论 MGM（1 n）模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-694X（2007）04-0584-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-02-052006-04-29 |
Simulation and Prediction of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration with Grey Multi-variable Model |
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| WANG Zhi-qiang,Chaolunbagen,CHAI Jian-hua.Simulation and Prediction of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration with Grey Multi-variable Model[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(4):584-588. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhi-qiang Chaolunbagen CHAI Jian-hua |
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| Institution: | 1 .College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China; 2.Inner Mongolia Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Hohhot 010018, China |
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| Abstract: | The general grey forecasting model GM(1,1) cannot take multi-variables into account when several variables relate with each other and few observation data are available.In this paper,a self-adapting MGM(1,n) model,which is a grey multi-variable forecasting model,is introduced to solve this problem.In area with few observation data,the reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0) were calculated by Penman-Monteith method based on the meteorology data in Zhenglan banner of Inner Mongolia.The variation regulation of crop evapotranspiration(ET0) was simulated and predicted by applying the grey MGM(1,n) established with grey system theory,whose results were compared with the those simulated by the GM(1,1) model and BP artificial neural network model.The results show that the MGM(1,n) model is feasible and effective for application. |
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| Keywords: | reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0) grey system theory MGM(1 n) model |
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