Update of likelihood-based ground-motion model selection for seismic hazard analysis in western central Europe |
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| Authors: | Esther Hintersberger Frank Scherbaum Sebastian Hainzl |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Postfach 60 15 53, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Scherbaum et al. (2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] proposed a likelihood-based approach to select and rank ground-motion
models for seismic hazard analysis in regions of low-seismicity. The results of their analysis were first used within the
PEGASOS project Abrahamson et al. (2002), In Proceedings of the 12 ECEE, London, 2002, Paper no. 633] so far the only application
of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in Europe which was based on a SSHAC Level 4 procedure (Budnitz et al.
1997, Recommendations for PSHA: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. No. NUREG/CR-6372-V1). The outcome of this project
have generated considerable discussion (Klügel 2005, Eng Geol 78:285–307, 2005b) Eng Geol 78: 285–307, (2005c) Eng Geol 82:
79–85 Musson et al. (2005) Eng Geol 82(1): 43–55]; Budnitz et al. (2005), Eng Geol 78(3–4): 285–307], a central part of which
is related to the issue of ground-motion model selection and ranking. Since at the time of the study by Scherbaum et al. (2004.)
Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185], only records from one earthquake were available for the study area, here we test the
stability of their results using more recent data. Increasing the data set from 12 records of one earthquake in Scherbaum
et al. (2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] to 61 records of 5 earthquakes, which have mainly occurred since the
publication of the original study, does not change the set of the three top-ranked ground-motion models Abrahamson and Silva
(1997) Seismolo Res Latt 68(1): 94–127; Lussou et al. (2001) J Earthquake Eng 5(1):13–33; Berge-Thierry et al. (2003) Bull
Seismolog Soc Am 95(2): 377–389. Only for the lower-ranked models do we obtain modifications in the ranking order. Furthermore,
the records from the Waldkirch earthquake (Dec, 5th, 2004, M
w = 4.9) enabled us to develop a new stochastic model parameter set for the application of Campbell’s (2003) Bull Seismolo
Soc Am 93(3): 1012–1033] hybrid empirical model to SW Germany and neighbouring regions. |
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| Keywords: | Ground-motion selection Low-seismicity region Stochastic model Western central Europe |
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