| 门限自回归模型在地震预报中的应用初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 和宏伟.门限自回归模型在地震预报中的应用初探[J].地震研究,1992,15(2):154-161. |
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| 作者姓名： | 和宏伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局 昆明 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文简要介绍了应用门限自回归方法处理浑沌时间序列,建立了浑沌时间序列自回归预报模型,并用其进行外推预报的基本方法及步骤。作者运用该方法建立了云南及滇西、滇东和滇西南等三个片区的半年最大震级序列的震级预报模型。由此预测了1991年上半年模型相应地区可能发生的最大地震震级。
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| 关 键 词： | 门限自回归 地震 预报 浑沌 |
STUDY OF THE THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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| He Hongwei.STUDY OF THE THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1992,15(2):154-161. |
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| Authors: | He Hongwei |
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| Abstract: | Chaotic time series are proeessed by asing the threshold autofegressive method to establish an autoregressive model predicting snch time series. The basic method and procedures are also introduce d concerning such an extrapolated prediction. Using this method, the author constructs respective models to predict the maximum magnitude series of carthquakes which are likely to occur within 6 months in the whole Yunan province as well as in its sub-regions of western, castern and southwestern Yunnan. Based on such a study, the maximum magnitude of earthquakes likely to occur in the first 6 mouths in Yunnan's sub-regious covered by respective models are predicted. |
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| Keywords: | Threshold autoregcessive analysis Chaotic time series Extrapotated prediction Mean square errors |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
