| 基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文) |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李强,任志远.基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)[J].地理学报(英文版),2012,22(1):93-109. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李强 任志远 |
| |
| 作者单位： | College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University;Shaanxi Institute of Education;Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Shaanxi Normal University |
| |
| 基金项目： | National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41071057;National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41001388;Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences under the Ministry of Education,No.2009JJD770025 |
| |
| 摘 要： | The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.
|
| 关 键 词： | energy production energy consumption industrial waste water gas and residue prediction and analysis space response China |
Energy production and consumption prediction and their response to environment based on coupling model in China |
| |
| Qiang Li,Zhiyuan Ren.Energy production and consumption prediction and their response to environment based on coupling model in China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(1):93-109. |
| |
| Authors: | Qiang Li Zhiyuan Ren |
| |
| Institution: | 1,3 1. College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China; 2. Shaanxi Institute of Education, Xi’an 710061, China; 3. Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well
as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial
waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1)
model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy
production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity
center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approximates to linear variation,
indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent,
with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity
center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from
2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces
and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas
and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend
on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production
& consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial
waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and
consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China. |
| |
| Keywords: | energy production energy consumption industrial waste water gas and residue prediction and analysis space response China |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《地理学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《地理学报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
