| 转移概率及最大转移概率预报方法在吴忠市霜冻预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐晶,陶林科,王建英,张建荣.转移概率及最大转移概率预报方法在吴忠市霜冻预报中的应用[J].内蒙古气象,2009(1):12-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐晶 陶林科 王建英 张建荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 吴忠市气象局,宁夏,吴忠,751100 |
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| 摘 要： | 在简介转移概率及最大转移概率预报原理的基础上，对宁夏吴忠市区1961--2000年初、终霜冻日期各随机序列状态之间的转换规律进行了分析，并结合各序列的初始分布，建立预报模型。应用该方法对1995—2001年的初、终霜冻日期进行了预测，结果表明，该方法对预报波动性较大的随机时间序列具有较强的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 转移概率 随机时间序列 预报模型 |
The Application of Predication Method of Conversion Probability and Maximum Conversion Probability in Frost Forecast in Wuzhong City |
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| Authors: | Tang Jing Tao Linke Wang Jianying Zhang Jianrong |
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| Institution: | Wuzhong Meteorological Bureau;Wuzhong 751100 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the brief introduction about prediction principle of conversion probability and max conversion probability,each random time series of the year-beginning and year-end frost date in Wuzhong city from 1961 to 2000 was analyzed and establish forecast model basis on the initialization distribution of each random time series.Using this method to forecast the year-beginning and year-end frost date from 1995-2001,the result indicated that this method has strong forecast ability to the random time series of... |
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| Keywords: | Conversion probability Random time series Forecast model |
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