Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution |
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| Authors: | Fabrice Chauvin Jean-François Royer Michel Déqué |
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| Institution: | (1) Météo-France/CNRM, 42 Avenue Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France;(2) CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, Météo-France, 42, avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France |
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| Abstract: | Atlantic hurricanes and their sensitivity to anthropogenic warming are investigated using very high (0.5°×0.5° over the Atlantic domain) resolution global simulations. The ARPEGE-Climat variable resolution grid demonstrates its usefulness in regional climate studies since resolution can be multiplied by a factor of 2.5 over the domain of interest compared to a uniform grid, for a similar computer cost. The question of hurricane characteristics dependence on anthropogenic warming is tackled trough the implementation of a tracking method. Changes in the total number, as well as locations, of hurricanes appear to depend more on sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns anomaly than Atlantic mean intensity, essentially through the change in large scale vertical wind shear. A uniform SST anomaly forcing produces increased and eastward shifted systems while a spatially contrasted anomaly leads to a decrease. Comparison between cyclogenesis density calculated from tracking or large scale combined variables (as a modified Gray parameter) brings some confidence in the use of the latter to investigate low resolution simulations. Mean hurricane dynamical characteristics are weakly changed by the warming but precipitation core and latent heat flux are enhanced in all scenarios. |
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