Fire danger assessment in Iran based on geospatial information |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Forestry, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Kilometer 9, Darya Road, Sari, Iran;2. Department of Geology, Geography and Environment, University of Alcala, Colegios 2, E-28801 Alcala de Henares, Spain.;1. Mugla Sitki Kocman University, Faculty of Science, Department of Statistics, Kotekli Kampusu, Mugla, Turkey;2. Kastamonu University, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Kastamonu, Turkey;3. Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey;1. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;2. State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), Nanjing 210023, China;3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China;4. Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran;5. Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, The Pennsylvania State University, Forest Resources Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA;1. Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran;2. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran;1. University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Wien, Austria;2. University of Graz, Institute of Geography and Regional Sciences, Universitätsplatz 3, 8010 Graz, Austria |
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| Abstract: | Fire danger assessment is a vital issue to alleviate the impacts of wildland fires. In this study, a fire danger assessment system is proposed, which extensively uses geographical databases to characterize the spatial variations of fire danger conditions in Iran. This assessment requires three steps: (i) generation of the required input variables, (ii) methods to integrate those variables for creating synthetic indices and (iii) validation of those indices versus fire occurrence data. This fire danger model is based on previous works but adapted to Iranian conditions. It includes an estimation of the fire ignition potential (both considering human and climatic factors) and fire propagation potential. The former was generated from a logistic regression approach based on a wide range of input variables. The fire propagation probability was estimated from the Flammap fire behavior model. A first stage for validation of our fire danger system was based on comparing the estimated danger values to actual fire occurrence, based on satellite detected active fires and burned areas. The logistic regression model for fire ignition probability estimated 72.7% of true ignitions. Detected hotspots occurred more frequently in areas with higher fire ignition probability (average value: 0.65) than non hotspots (average value: 0.4). Propagation probability showed higher values for areas with higher proportion of burned area (r = 0.68, p < 0.001). |
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| Keywords: | Fire ignition probability Fire propagation probability Geographic information system Iran |
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