Paleotemperature reconstruction in tropical Africa using fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) |
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| Authors: | Hilde Eggermont Oliver Heiri James Russell Mathias Vuille Leen Audenaert Dirk Verschuren |
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| Institution: | (1) Limnology Unit, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent, Belgium;(2) Palaeoecology, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, 3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands;(3) Geological Sciences, Brown University, Box 1846, Providence, RI 02912, USA;(4) Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Ave, Albany, NY 12222, USA |
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| Abstract: | Fossil assemblages of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established paleothermometers
in north-temperate and boreal regions, but their potential for temperature reconstruction in tropical regions has never before
been assessed. In this study, we surveyed sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in the surface sediments of 65 lakes and permanent
pools in southwestern Uganda (including the Rwenzori Mountains) and central and southern Kenya (including Mount Kenya) to
document the modern distribution of African chironomid communities along the regional temperature gradient covered by lakes
situated between 489 and 4,575 m above sea level (a.s.l). We then combined these faunal data with linked Surface-Water Temperature
(SWTemp: range 2.1–28.1°C) and Mean Annual Air Temperature (MATemp: range 1.1–24.9°C) data to develop inference models for
quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction. Here we compare and discuss the performance of models based on different numerical
techniques weighted-averaging (WA), weighted-averaging partial-least-squares (WA-PLS) and a weighted modern analogue technique
(WMAT)], and on subsets of lakes with varying gradient lengths of temperature and other environmental variables. All inference
models calibrated against MATemp have a high coefficient of determination (
r\textjack2 r_{\text{jack}}^{2} = 0.81–0.97), low maximum bias (0.84–2.59°C), and low root-mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP = 0.61–1.50°C). The statistical
power of SWTemp models is generally weaker (
r\textjack2 r_{\text{jack}}^{2} = 0.77–0.95; maximum bias 1.55–3.73°C; RMSEP = 1.39–1.98°C), likely because the surface-water temperature data are spot measurements
failing to catch significant daily and seasonal variation. Models based on calibration over the full temperature gradient
suffer slightly from the limited number of study sites at intermediate elevation (2,000–3,000 m), and from the presence of
morphologically indistinguishable but ecologically distinct taxa. Calibration confined to high-elevation sites (>3,000 m)
has poorer error statistics, but is less susceptible to biogeographical and taxonomic complexities. Our results compare favourably
with chironomid-based temperature inferences in temperate regions, indicating that chironomid-based temperature reconstruction
in tropical Africa can be achieved. |
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