The probability distribution of extreme precipitation |
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| Authors: | V Yu Korolev A K Gorshenin |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics,Moscow State University,Moscow,Russia;2.Institute of Informatics Problems of the Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control,” of the Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia;3.Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou,China;4.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher–Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data. |
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