| 新疆昌吉绿洲耕地适宜规模研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李婧昕,张红旗.新疆昌吉绿洲耕地适宜规模研究[J].地理研究,2021,40(3):613-626. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李婧昕 张红旗 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101;中国科学院大学,北京100049;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41561070) |
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| 摘 要： | 干旱区内耕地急剧扩张导致水资源严重超载,进而引发一系列生态问题,因此对干旱区绿洲耕地适宜规模进行科学评估,将为干旱区农业可持续发展与生态保护提供重要参考。本文以水资源为约束条件,选择2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2018年5个研究时段,分别测算了适宜当地社会经济发展和生态环境需求的“三生”用水量;并基于绿洲水热平衡原理,耦合作物种植结构、不同生长期内的作物系数以及灌溉保障率、耕地覆膜等因素,构建了干旱区耕地水热平衡估算模型,探讨了不同情景下新疆昌吉州耕地适宜规模及其超载程度。结果表明,5个时段中,临界耕地适宜规模情景下的种植业可用水量由2000年的31.75亿m3波动下降至2018年的24.83亿m3,而最佳耕地适宜规模情景下则由27.63亿m3波动下降至21.10亿m3。棉花和小麦在当地种植业结构中占比之和由43.58%提高到2018年的59.08%,两种作物的低耗水特性使其种植占比的提高有利于当地种植业向耕地规模扩张的方向演进。各时段中,保障充分生态用水的最佳耕地适宜规模在28.93万~48.97万hm2间波动,而保障最低生态用水的临界耕地适宜规模在42.63万~67.83万hm2间波动。虽然两种用水情景下的适宜耕地规模波动变化,但耕地面积超载程度始终呈上升趋势,超载程度分别由2000年处于不超载水平的-55.15%和-39.41%提高到2018年的接近于严重超载级别的19.92%和远超严重超载级别的71.37%,表明当地耕地规模已明显呈现过度开发的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 水热平衡 耕地规模 作物蒸散 种植结构 超载分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-09-07 |
Study on the suitable scale of cultivated land in oasis of Changji,Xinjiang |
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| LI Jingxin,ZHANG Hongqi.Study on the suitable scale of cultivated land in oasis of Changji,Xinjiang[J].Geographical Research,2021,40(3):613-626. |
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| Authors: | LI Jingxin ZHANG Hongqi |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | The large-scale expansion of cultivated lands in arid region has caused water overload and a series of ecological problems. Therefore, conducting the scientific assessment of the scale of suitable cultivated land in arid areas can provide reference for sustainable development of agricultural and ecological environment. In this research, five years, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 were selected as study periods. Water resources were considered as the limiting factor, and a living-production-ecology water consumption structure was built in this research, which is suitable for local socioeconomic development and eco-environment characteristics. The water and heat balance method was improved coupling physical factors like planting structure and crop coefficient in different growth periods, and management factors like irrigation guarantee rate and mulching. Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture was selected as a case study. The results show that the available water amount of the scenario of critical arable land area for planting decreased from 3.175 billion m3 in 2000 to 2.483 billion m3 in 2018, while the available water amount of the scenario of optimal arable land area for planting decreased from 2.763 billion m3 in 2000 to 2.110 billion m3 in 2018. The total planting area proportion of cotton and wheat increased from 43.58% in 2000 to 59.08% in 2018. Among the main crops, cotton and wheat had lower water requirements after being compensated by precipitation, while the sown area proportion of both increased, indicating that the planting structure is evolving toward the aspect helpful to expansion suitable cultivated land. In the five years, the optimal arable land area which can ensure adequate ecological water consumption is between 28.93 ten thousand hectare and 48.97 ten thousand hectare, while the critical arable land area which can ensure minimal ecological water consumption is between 42.63 ten thousand hectare and 67.83 ten thousand hectare. Available water for plant industry declined with fluctuations. Although the factors affecting the scale of suitable cultivated land fluctuated, under the scenarios of critical and optimal scales of arable land, the overload degree of cultivated land scale showed an upward trend, which varied from -55.15% and -39.41%, at no overload level, in 2000, to 19.92%, a level close to severe overload, and 71.37%, a level of far exceeding severe overload, respectively. The scale of local cultivated land has presented an overload development level. |
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| Keywords: | water and heat balance scale of cultivated land crop evapotranspiration planting structure overload analysis |
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