| 青藏高原流动人口居留意愿及影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘振,刘盛和,戚伟,金浩然.青藏高原流动人口居留意愿及影响因素[J].地理学报,2021,76(9):2142-2156. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘振 刘盛和 戚伟 金浩然 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049;住房和城乡建设部政策研究中心,北京100835 |
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| 基金项目： | 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK1005);国家自然科学基金项目(42001166) |
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| 摘 要： | 流动人口是青藏高原人口增长的重要动力,其城镇居留意愿关乎青藏高原城镇化的可持续发展。利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,测算青藏高原流动人口城镇居留意愿,根据来源地是否在青藏高原地域范围内,划分近程和远程流动人口,解析近程和远程流动人口城镇居留意愿的分异特征,建立多层Logistic回归模型,探讨流动人口城镇居留意愿及其近远程分异的影响因素。主要发现如下：① 青藏高原流动人口总体城镇居留意愿不高,仅有约32%的流动人口打算在城镇地区长期居留;除拉萨、西宁和海西等少数地区外,多数地区该比例仅约为10%。② 近程流动人口城镇居留意愿明显高于远程流动人口,但近程流动人口在多数地区的居留意愿仍低于20%。③ 受教育程度、收入水平、城镇医疗保险、社会融合程度以及流入地的经济发展水平、自然条件等因素对流动人口城镇居留意愿具有显著正向影响。④ 近程和远程流动人口城镇居留意愿分异与流动原因、社会融合程度等方面的差异密切相关。最后,针对青藏高原的特殊性,提出差异化的流动人口高质量城镇化政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 流动人口 城镇化 居留意愿 近远程 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-02-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-08-23 |
The settlement intention of floating population and the factors in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:An analysis from the perspective of short-distance and long-distance migrants |
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| LIU Zhen,LIU Shenghe,QI Wei,JIN Haoran.The settlement intention of floating population and the factors in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:An analysis from the perspective of short-distance and long-distance migrants[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2021,76(9):2142-2156. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhen LIU Shenghe QI Wei JIN Haoran |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China3. Policy Research Center, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Beijing 100835, China |
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| Abstract: | The floating population has become an important driving force of population growth in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent years, and thus the settlement intention of the floating population is of vital importance to the sustainable urbanization of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the data of China's floating population dynamic monitoring survey in 2017, this paper measured the settlement intention of the floating population in the study area, and according to their migration source of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area, and distinguished the short- and long-distance floating population, and then compared their settlement intentions. Following this, we built a multi-level logistic regression model to analyze the underlying driving forces of the settlement intentions of the floating population as well as the possible differences between the short- and long-distance floating population. The main findings are as follows: (1) The overall settlement intention of the floating population in the plateau area was not high, and only about 32% of the floating population intend to stay in the urban areas for a long time; except for Lhasa, Xining and Haixi, that proportion is only about 10% of the prefecture units. (2) The settlement intention of the short-distance floating population was significantly higher than that of the long-distance floating population, but the percentages of the short-distance floating population with long-term settlement intention in most prefecture units were still less than 20%. (3) Education level, income level, urban medical insurance, social integration, economic development level and natural conditions of the inflow destinations have significant influence on the settlement intention of the floating population. (4) The difference of settlement intention between short- and long-distance floating population was closely related to the migration motivation and the social integration. Based on the above findings, this paper suggests that it is necessary to take targeted measures to improve the settlement intention of the short- and long-distance floating population in terms of the influencing factors, and also explore the suitable urbanization pattern for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area, such as promoting the local urbanization. |
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| Keywords: | Qinghai-Tibet Plateau floating population urbanization settlement intention short-distance long-distance |
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